Every week in the NFL, the unpredictable comes true. Last week, it was Jalen Coker and Bryce Young going nuclear on the Bears, among many other surprising outcomes. If you read this article last week, we called big games by Caleb Douglas and Dontayvion Wicks, in large part due to their matchups. This week, I’ll give you five more bold predictions for the main slate that have less than a 10% chance of happening in simulations, but are within the realm of possibility. If one of these contrarian picks strikes gold, you could be sitting atop the leaderboard.
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Carson Wentz finishes as a QB1
FanDrill’s current ADP has Wentz going in the early 10th round as the QB27, so this would be an epic value. You’ll notice a theme from last week: picking on the Bears’ secondary. Even more so, we are leaning on the expected game script of an offense passing on 70% of plays while playing from behind.
It helps to be throwing to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. What’s more, Jordan Mason was placed on IR, so you can expect more reliance on the pass in Week 2. And let’s not forget that Wentz averages 20-plus rushing yards per game and may scamper into the end zone himself, as he’s shown a propensity to do throughout his career.
Jadarian Price puts up 100-plus total yards and two TDs
Last week, we saw Price on the field for only 48% of the snaps, splitting time with George Holani and Brady Russell, but the Seahawks’ offensive coordinator has made it clear Price has earned more playing time.
While he might not yet be a bell cow, you can expect 15-plus touches against a Cardinals running defense built like Swiss cheese. Assuming the game script plays out as expected, the Seahawks should employ a run-heavy scheme in the second half as they drain the clock to secure a win. If that happens, the immensely talented Price should eat them alive.
Kaleb Johnson steals the Packers’ RB1 role
With Josh Jacobs out for who knows how long, the Packers had to turn to a split of Marshawn Lloyd and Chris Brooks. It was ugly.
Meanwhile, they traded for a Ferrari in second-year back Kaleb Johnson when they recognized the dilemma they were in. While it’s expected they’ll continue with the split, the move indicates Johnson will get a chance to claim the backfield sooner rather than later.
If he gets a few touches this week, they may feed the hot hand against a lousy Jets defense in what’s expected to be a positive game script for the Packers’ running game. At less than 0.5% FanDrill roster percentage, he may be a slate-breaker if you’re willing to take the risk.
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Luther Burden emerges as Ben Johnson’s favorite toy
Week 1 was a significant disappointment for Burden drafters who seemingly wasted a fifth- or sixth-round pick on the hyped sophomore wideout. Add in a Week 2 matchup against the Vikings, who may have the best defense in football, and Burden’s ADP has dropped to Round 8.
However, the underlying metrics scream a golden opportunity, as Burden finds separation against the blitz better than perhaps anyone in the NFL. Keep in mind, the Bears may have been easing him back in after the preseason injury. This week, he gets unleashed at the lowest price you’ll see him at all season.
Caleb Douglas outscores his Week 1 breakout
It’s rare that you’ll see me write about the same player in back-to-back weeks. But in Douglas’s case, few are buying into his 94 yards in Week 1 as anything other than a fluke. The tape tells a different story: he led the NFL in separation score and was open seemingly every play.
With the game script heavily favoring 30-plus pass attempts from the Dolphins in San Francisco, we may well see Douglas surpass double-digit targets. You can grab him in the 11th round of your FanDrill drafts, but I’d reach into the 10th round before a Fanalyst who believes in Douglas has a chance to snipe you.
Jett Morris is a Sr. Fantasy Analyst for FanDrill. Follow him on Twitter @JettMorris for more fantasy sports content.
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