Category: NFL

  • 9 Targets for Week 1 SuperFlex

    Here at FanDrill, we created the game with this concept in mind: Real life stars should be fantasy stars, so we’ve corrected fantasy scoring and added a SuperFlex roster spot to standard DFS so that players like Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford are top 10 players instead of outside the top 80. Passing touchdowns count for 6 fantasy points instead of 4, interceptions are -4 instead of -2, and passing yards are 25% more valuable than before. With 14 drafting teams and only 24 starting quarterbacks in the main slate, the positional scarcity creates extra value. Because of these changes, our ADP may be a bit different than you are accustomed to seeing. Today, I’ll point you to the players I’d be targeting at cost for Week 1 in a quick-hitting format for easy digestion and practical action. We’ll skip the first two rounds, as draft position will ultimately determine the best options when you are on the clock.

    1. Bryce Young (QB – CAR)

    • HOME vs CHI (top-quartile matchup)
    • +2.5 underdogs (+ game script)
    • 47.5 over/under (3rd highest on slate)
    • ADP: #52 overall, QB #27

    2. Tetairoa McMillan (WR – CAR)

    • Ideal matchup vs CB, Jaylon Johnson (CHI)
    • +2.5 underdogs (+ game script)
    • 47.5 over/under (3rd highest on slate)
    • ADP: #63 overall, WR #15

    3. Kimani Vidal (RB – LAC) **SLEEPER**

    • Will go undrafted in most instances
    • -10.5 favorites vs putrid ARI defense
    • Keaton Mitchell still injured makes Vidal #2
    • He’ll presumably split the workload with Hampton is the game is out of hand
    • ADP #201 overall, RB #57

    4. Chris Godwin (WR – TB) 

    • The only reason Godwin’s ADP is so low is injury risk; he’s healthy now
    • 51.5 over/under (highest on the week)
    • +3.5 dogs this week = plus game script
    • Versus miserable CIN pass defense; fireworks expected
    • Baker Mayfield has been praising Godwin as “the best version of himself”
    • ADP #97, WR #38

    5. Tony Pollard (RB – TEN)

    • It’s boring, but you won’t have many games with the Titans as favorites
    • Game script is projected to be a + with an top-quartile matchup vs NYJ
    • Good luck finding a RB drafted later with 2-TD upside in Week 1
    • ADP #87, RB #25

    6. Sam LaPorta (TE – DET)

    • +49.5 over/under (2nd highest on the slate)
    • Versus the Saints, who were among the most generous vs opposing TE’s last season
    • Laporta’s injury from 2025 dropped his ADP, but he’s healthy entering the season
    • He has an injury tag so roster-rates will be very low for a player with 2-TD upside.
    • ADP #119, TE #10

    7. Devaughn Vele (WR – NO) **CONTRARIAN**

    • Opposite end of the +49.5 over/under of Laporta and the Lions
    • With Jordan Tyson out, Vele gets the start against a terrible pass coverage
    • If you are looking for low-ownership with big upside, look no further
    • ADP #238, WR #95

    8. Kirk Cousins (QB – LV)

    • You may not like the Raiders offense, but they are favorites in Week 1
    • With Ashton Jeanty expected to miss, Vegas should pass more often
    • Opponent, Miami may be historically bad, especially on defense this season
    • Cousins wasn’t great last year, but is now two years removed from the Achillies
    • ADP #58, QB #27

    9. Chris Rodriguez Jr. (RB – JAX) **CONTRARIAN**

    • -7.5 favorites vs CLE (Myles Garrett is gone)
    • Liam Coen offense & coach says split backfield
    • As the power-runner in the scheme, he’ll presumably get bulk of work in blowout
    • Will be the goal-line back; can we squeeze a TD out of our 11th round pick?

  • 5 Bold Predictions for Week 1 DFS

    The bold comes true every week in the National Football League. Whether it’s Matt Flynn throwing for six TDs and 480 yards, Jonas Gray scampering for 200 yards and four TDs, or the Muscle Hamster breaking out for 250, what would have seemed like an unspeakable prediction, let alone a bold one, happens more often than we tend to remember. In order to win top prizes in DFS, you have to be the one who can see what is possible, not what is likely. Today, I’ll give you five bold predictions for the main slate that have less than a 10% chance of happening in simulations, but are within the realm of possibility. If one strikes gold at 1% roster rates, you might find yourself sitting at the top of a mountain of money.

    #1 Caleb Douglas finishes in the top 10 wide receivers

    Woo, that’s a spicy one to start with, as Douglas is being undrafted in 94% of traditional fantasy leagues. But he’s starting, perhaps as the WR1 for the Dolphins. Keep in mind, this call checks all the boxes for a total mystery:

    1. Bobby Slowik takes over as offensive coordinator (served under Kyle Shanahan in the past)
    2. Quarterback Malik Willis gets his first look as a starter headed into the season.
    3. Douglas is a rookie with rave reviews from training camp.
    4. Most importantly, he matches up against third-round sophomore Dairen Porter, who has a great athletic profile but struggled in coverage as a rookie. We have no idea who Porter will be as a starter, but what we do know is that he didn’t often play in the secondary in college.

    This is the worst defense Douglas will play all season. There is a lot of upside in the Week 1 unknown here.

    #2 Rico Dowdle splashes for 110 yards and 2 TDs

    Keep in mind, we aren’t looking for what’s most likely, which is a split backfield between Warren and Dowdle. We are looking for the ‘what if’ that could win you first place. There is a chance Warren is used as a third-down back while Dowdle is leaned on heavily as the primary runner in 2026 for Pittsburgh.

    There is also a strong chance that the Falcons have one of the worst, if not the worst, run defenses in the NFL this season. They ranked in the bottom quartile of run-defense metrics last season, then lost Jalon Walker (torn ACL) for the season, James Pearce Jr. to an eight-game suspension, interior anchor David Onyemata, and linebacker Kaden Elliss this offseason.

    #3 Cade Otton surprises with a top-three finish among fantasy tight ends

    Every week, a tight end outside the top 20 finishes among the top performers. Much of it has to do with matchup, and if we learned anything in 2025, it’s that the Bengals are the defense to pick on for fantasy tight ends. Even with the improvements they made, a 35% improvement would still put them in the bottom 10. The difference between Cincinnati versus TEs (17.5 PPG allowed) and the second worst (13.4) was a larger gap than No. 2 and No. 23.

    Otton is coming back from a preseason injury and competing seemingly fourth in line for targets in a crowded Bucs’ receiving corps, but this matchup and game script scream 35 pass attempts from Baker with a pass funnel over the middle of the field. Don’t be shocked if he gets in the end zone once or twice in this slate-high +51.5 over/under shootout.

    #4 Kyler Murray ends up with 25 fantasy points

    Two words: Kevin O’Connell. Do you remember what Sam Darnold was before O’Connell got his hands on the now-Super Bowl champ? Enter Kyler Murray, a former No. 1 overall pick with breathtaking rushing ability, perhaps the most talented wide receiver in the world, and a very underrated No. 2 weapon in Jordan Addison, and we might be cooking with gas.

    What stands out to me here, though, is the uncertainty that is the Packers’ defense in 2026. Jonathan Gannon is a first-time defensive coordinator going up against the genius offensive mind of O’Connell. We all know the Packers lost all-universe pass rusher Micah Parsons until October, but that’s not all. They lost over 3,000 defensive snaps from their starters with the departures of Rashan Gary, Quay Walker, and Kingsley Enagbare, among others.

    #5 Dontayvion Wicks surpasses 100 receiving yards

    With the departure of A.J. Brown to New England, everyone has expected Makai Lemon to move right into the starting lineup for the Eagles. That’s easier said than done, however, when a rookie wideout is nursing a hamstring injury throughout portions of the preseason. Expect Wicks to play the majority of the snaps for Philadelphia early on.

    Wicks was reunited with his former assistant coach, Sean Mannion, this offseason and has been receiving rave reviews from beat writers and even opponents from joint practices. Carlton Davis Jr. called Wicks a “serious problem.” Perhaps best of all is his matchup against Commanders third-year cornerback Mike Sainristil. 68.5% of the passes targeting him were completed in 2025, and he allowed a 108.5 passer rating on those targets.