Every week in the NFL, the unpredictable happens. Last week, it was Geno Smith and Jacoby Brissett putting up 25-plus fantasy points each, while Kenonta Mumpfield went ballistic in Puka Nacua’s absence. If you had any of these players at ADP, you had a significantly increased chance of cashing in your contests. This week, I’ll give you five more bold predictions for the main slate that have less than a 10% chance of happening in simulations, but are within the realm of possibility. If one of these contrarian picks strikes gold, you could be sitting atop the leaderboard.
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#1 Bhayshul Tuten earns his flowers as a top-5 RB
It’s time to give Bhayshul Tuten his flowers. The Jaguars’ second-year running back has had at least 15 touches in every game this season, and he is coming off a 15-touch, 90-yard performance against the Patriots. Now, he gets a Bengals defense that was shredded by Jaylen Warren last week.
Tuten has had three awful matchups to start the season against Cleveland, Denver, and New England, and he still has managed to find 15-plus touches every game. The volume has been there; now he gets a matchup where the production should follow.
I also think Tuten has more value than his counterpart, Chris Rodriguez Jr., in a negative game script. Jacksonville has not really had to rely on Tuten in that type of game yet, but if the Jaguars find themselves playing from behind, I expect Tuten to see more work through the air.
The upside is massive. Tuten has the talent to turn his volume into a huge fantasy performance, and this Bengals defense could be exactly what he needs to break out. Don’t be surprised if he finishes as a top-five RB this week.
#2 Braelon Allen showcases star upside
With Breece Hall almost certainly out, Braelon Allen should have full command of the Jets’ backfield.
That is a very exciting proposition when you consider where he gets to play this week: Chicago, where defense appears to be optional.
Whichever way the game script plays out, Allen should get plenty of touches on the ground and/or through the air. If the Jets are playing with a lead, he can grind out carries. If they are playing from behind, his receiving ability gives him another path to a big fantasy day.
The kid is a physical specimen with an impeccable athletic profile. Think old-school Michael Turner behind LaDainian Tomlinson—but on the Jets.
Allen has the opportunity to show everyone why the Jets drafted him, and I think this could be the first game where we see his true star upside.
#3 Tyler Warren outscores all fantasy tight ends this week
Yes, that includes Brock Bowers against Kansas City and Trey McBride against the Giants, which is an awful matchup now that rookie sensation Arvell Reese exists.
Warren is the de facto No. 1 receiver for the Colts, but with tight end eligibility. He is playing over 90% of the snaps and has run 96 routes already this season, which is more than Ja’Marr Chase, Garrett Wilson, George Pickens, and Davante Adams, among many other star wideouts.
Most importantly, he has a juicy matchup against the Commanders, who have struggled to stop tight ends this season.
Warren is already being used like a true No. 1 receiver, and the fact that we get to roster him at tight end gives him an enormous advantage. If he gets the target volume we have seen so far and finds the end zone, there is a legitimate path to Warren finishing as the highest-scoring tight end on the entire slate.
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#4 Emeka Egbuka finishes among the top five wideouts this week
Coming into the season, Egbuka was not quite himself, nursing a toe sprain from the preseason. He predictably struggled against Denzel Ward in Week 2, but he was solid last week against the Vikings’ all-universe defense.
Now enter backup QB Jalon Daniels.
Daniels isn’t your typical rookie. He was a sixth-year senior at Kansas and a 2022 Academic All-American, and he should be able to pick up the offense more quickly than most first-time starters.
Most importantly, he’s a certified gunslinger who forces passes, airs it out downfield, and should be playing from behind against a highly disappointing Green Bay secondary.
You can get Egbuka at a discount this week, but it’s not a warranted drop in price. He is still one of the most talented wideouts on the board, and now he gets a quarterback who could be willing to take more chances downfield.
I think Egbuka reminds everyone why he was such a highly regarded prospect coming into this season and finishes among the top five wideouts this week.
#5 Jalon Daniels is a top-15 fantasy option
Yes, I know. The rookie who went 0-for-3 with an interception in his NFL debut is going to be a top-15 fantasy quarterback.
Hear me out.
Daniels has wheels. He was a legitimate dual-threat quarterback at Kansas, where he finished his college career with more than 1,400 rushing yards and 23 rushing touchdowns. He also has the arm talent to push the ball downfield, which makes this a much more interesting fantasy situation than the typical rookie making his first NFL start.
He should also be playing from behind against Green Bay, which means I expect plenty of passing volume. I could easily see him getting 25-plus pass attempts, and 40 rushing yards and a TD isn’t out of the equation on top of that.
You can get Daniels in the 10th round of your FanDrill drafts this week, in part because most drafters don’t realize he has some wheels and strong instincts as a scrambler.
If Daniels can avoid the disastrous mistakes that come with most rookie quarterbacks, there is a path to a surprisingly strong fantasy debut. At his current ADP, that kind of upside is exactly what I’m looking for in a contrarian pick.
Jett Morris is a Sr. Fantasy Analyst for FanDrill. Follow him on Twitter @JettMorris for more fantasy sports content.
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